Reyes, the Key to the Fans and the Future

Go to a game at Citi Field one day.  As far as baseball parks go—ranging from amenities to field visibility—it is all you could ask for.  The architecture is beautiful for a baseball park.  If you look at the stadium from any possible angle, the same thought jumps into the onlookers head:  This stadium should host a perennial winner.  The perennial winner is exactly what is missing from Flushing Meadows in Queens.  The closest Citi Field gets to a perennial winner is the once a year trip that Raphael Nadal and Roger Federer make next door to the US Open.

            My generation (i.e. those born in 87’ or later) has been subject to 3 common thoughts about the New York Mets: Hope, heartbreak, and disappointment.  As far back as I can remember I would always somehow find a way to get myself excited for the Mets.  That is until the start of this baseball season.  This year I felt no excitement about the upcoming baseball season, no yearning to go to as many Mets games as I could.  There are many reasons for my lack of excitement, but they can be summed up like this:  Madoff, the disappointments of 2007 and 2008, David Wright forgetting how to hit in his mid 20s, and the fact that the marquee signings of the Mets offseason were D.J. Carrasco and Chris Young, I didn’t see much to look forward too.  No matter how hard I tried to get excited—and I tried everything from reading fantasy projections for every player on the Mets roster to trying to devalue the rosters of other teams in the NL East—I just could not bring myself  to care about the 2011 season…Fast-forward 2 months and, as usual, the Mets have found a way to reel me back in.

            The Mets 5-13 start didn’t get me all too excited, it was the 6 game win streak that followed.  All of a sudden I was having the annual irrational dreams of grandeur.  Of course the Mets then, in typical Mets fashion, went on to lose the next 4 games.  But for some reason this Met team doesn’t have any quit in it.  I don’t know why.  I don’t really think anyone knows to be honest.  If you had told me at the start of the season that Ike Davis and David Wright would both miss 2 months, Justin Turner would be starting at second base, Jason Bay would have 10 RBIs in June, and Mike Pelfrey would be pitching to an ERA over 5.00,  I would have told you they would be sitting in the basement of the National League.   But for some reason their winning percentage has continued to hover near .500, and they continue to excite me day by day.  The only reason I can think of for this unwarranted excitement is the reemergence of Jose Reyes as an elite shortstop.  And that my friends is the problem…

            The whole point of all my rambling to this point, was to convey the point that I have become excited about a team that I had previously no hope of getting excited for.  However, no “professional” baseball people seem to think that there is any way that Jose Reyes will be with the Mets for the rest of the season.  This seems to be the combined consensus of all of the baseball people that I have heard discuss Reyes this year: “The Mets are cash-strapped and can’t afford to re-sign him in the offseason, so they will likely trade him for a couple good prospects rather than get only 2 draft picks after the season.”  The first thing that I feel after I hear comments like this is sadness.  The second thing that I feel is rage. 

            The reason for my anger is two-fold.  One part is irrational, the other part, to me anyway, based on common sense.  The irrational part of my anger is the part that is sentimental.  I’ve watched Reyes play since his rookie year.  His entire career, to this point, all any Met fans have talked about was the limitless potential of Jose Reyes.  While we were busy talking about his potential, two things were happening to Reyes simultaneously: he turned into an all star shortstop—not quite realizing the potential that he had been labeled with by the fans and media—and he had bought an annual timeshare on the Mets Disabled List.  As Reyes’s career progressed and the Mets moved into Citi Field, all anyone could say about him was that if he could ever get fully healthy he would become an absolute superstar.  For Mets fans, talking about Reyes’s potential was like being in a dream, it was nice to think about, but none of us ever thought he would realize the hype…And then this year happened.  This is where my sentimentality makes me extremely angry at the prospect of either trading or losing Reyes via free agency.  I’ve watched him for so long and dreamt about him doing everything that he is doing now—leading the NL in batting average, as well as having 19 SBs and 11 Triples on June 8^th!—only to have it stripped away as it is happening.  As a die-hard fan it is very disheartening to see one of  “My Boys”—“My boys” is the term that I like to use to refer to players that began their careers on one of my favorite teams.  Players that I can never see myself rooting against no matter what other Jersey they Don…unless it’s a Phillies Jersey—traded away just as he becomes the player that us fans have been waiting 7 years for him to become.  The other reason for my rage about the prospect of Reyes leaving, is much more objective.

            I remember the Johan Santana trade very well.  Even though Santana has been injured, that trade is the equivalent of the Casino heist in “Ocean’s Eleven.”  The Twins were forced to trade Santana because they realized they would not be able to sign him in free agency and wanted to get something back.  The only “quality” piece they got back was Carlos Gomez who is no longer a Twin.  My biggest fear is that the Mets will panic just as the Twins did and trade Reyes to a team like the Giants for 3 mid-level (in other words prospects who will be no better than decent every day players at best) prospects because they fear that they cannot re-sign him.  This would be an atrocious turn of events because Reyes is currently playing like the best Shortstop in baseball and would seriously be in the MVP debate if the Mets’ record was a little better.  Yet if the Mets are intent on not re-signing Reyes, I can see them taking no other path than trading him.  However should they get—as I expect they will—60 cents on the dollar for Reyes, they will be setting the Franchise back several more years.  The only alternative to trading Reyes, is giving him the large contract he wants.

            It seems as if the Wilpon’s finances have put the Mets in such a hole that they will be unable to give a big contract to anyone.  This is a major problem, not just for the Mets and their fans, but for baseball in general.  New York teams need to be able to pay their players and be competitive year in and year out.  The market in New York is far too big for a MLB team to not be able to  pay their own players.  What is happening with the Mets and Reyes would never happen to the Yankees.  Had it been the Yankees, Reyes would have been locked up long-term last offseason when there was the ability to get a discount on his contract (Reyes had a good year last year, but nothing like the year he is having now).  Instead, the Mets decided to “See how he played this year” before making a determination.  To me that’s the Wilpons saying “We hope he gets injured so we can justify not giving him a contract.” Or “We hope he has a decent year so the media can’t kill us for trading him at mid-season.”  Unfortunately for the Wilpon’s Reyes has had a career year, a year that may command the oft mentioned “Carl Crawford contract.”  Giving Reyes $100 million shouldn’t be a problem for any New York team, yet it is a huge problem for the Mets.  If the Mets are forced to trade Reyes for 60 cents on the dollar or let him go in free agency, Bud Selig should take over the team.  Friend or not, Fred Wilpon has been destroying baseball for Mets fans and Bud Selig needs to step in at some point.  Should Reyes be traded or let go, the Wilpons will be alienating the entire fan base just like they did from 2002-2004.  The difference between then and now, is that then they didn’t give up any star players, the team got old and the front office didn’t make changes where necessary.  This team is relatively young and Reyes is in the prime of his career.  Letting a bonafide star leave New York would be the equivalent of what would have happened had the Cleveland Cavaliers let Lebron go without making any attempt to re-sign him.  The fallout will be devestating, and all Mets fans, myself included, will give up hope of seeing a good team in Queens again any time soon.

            So do what you want Fred and Jeff Wilpon.  But just know that the first step toward putting a perennial contender in Citi Field is re-signing your star shortstop.  “Bleeding cash” is the terminology that Fred Wilpon used to describe the Mets finances in Sports Illustrated.  Wilpon predicted that the Mets were on pace to lose upwards of $70 million this season.  Well I have news for YOU Fred Wilpon, should you let Jose Reyes go and relegate the Mets to the bottom of the NL East again, $70 million is just the beginning as the Mets will bleed even more cash as they bleed the life and excitement out of their fan base. 

NBA Playoff Preview Part I

                So the NBA season is over and that means its time for a playoff preview!!! Get excited.  This year might have been the most enjoyable NBA regular season that I can ever remember.  Heading into the Playoffs, I feel the same way about the NBA that just about everyone felt about the Masters around 4:30pm yesterday: That the title is completely up in the air.  For the first time that I can remember, there are about 7 different teams that have a legitimate shot to win the championship.  So lets take a look at all 16 playoff teams and why they will or will not win the title.

Indiana Pacers

Why they will be Champions:  The Pacers have a solid young core in Darren Collison, Danny Granger, Tyler Hansbrough, and Roy Hibbert…Trying to think of something else…still trying…nope that’s about it.

Why they won’t be Champions:  Lets not forget they are still the Indiana Pacers.  The only reason the Pacer’s are even in the playoffs is because they play in the disgustingly top-heavy eastern conference.  Beating out the Charlotte Bobcats for the last spot in the East is not particularly impressive.  While they have talent, the Bulls best 3 players are all better than the Pacer’s best (Granger).  Combine the Bull’s stifling D with the Pacer’s tendency to go on long offensive lapses and you have a very one-sided series.  The Pacer’s are going to have to shoot well to even win a game and I don’t see the rotting corpse of Mike Dunleavy hitting many jumpers with Luol Deng in his face.

Bold Prediction:  Pacer’s get swept in the opening round.

Memphis Grizzlies

Why they will be Champions:  They play Championship caliber defense, can bang inside, and have an above average backcourt.  You could make an argument that no team has done a bigger 180 from last year than the Grizz.  They can legitimately slug it out with any team in the NBA inside, and play better perimeter defense than almost any team in the NBA.  Tony Allen has transformed his game, Mike Conley has become an above average PG, and there is just an intensity that Memphis play with that no one foresaw when they were predicted to finish toward the bottom of the NBA pre-season.

Why they won’t be:  Rudy Gay.  Even though OJ Mayo has played extremely well in Gay’s absence, an offensive player of Gay’s caliber is irreplaceable in the playoffs.  They are also destined to play the Spurs—who have the best home record in the NBA—on the road in the first round.  Tyreke Evans, Steph Curry, Ricky Rubio, Ty Lawson, Brandon Jennings, and Jrue Holiday: All players the Grizz passed on for Hasheem Thabeet.  While they got Battier back, they could use another guard right now, especially heading into a faceoff with the Spurs.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Grizz force 6 or even 7 games against the Spurs, but ultimately I think the absence of Gay and not having home-court will be to much to overcome.

Bold Prediction: Memphis take the Spurs to 7 games.

Philadelphia 76ers

Why They will be Champions:  The Doug Collins factor.  As Bill Simmons points out here http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/110408&sportCat=nba …Doug Collins is a great motivator for one year.  Aside from Collins, this 76er team has some talent: Andre Iguodala is one of the most consistently underrated players in the NBA, Elton Brand has breathed life back into his career, and Jrue Holiday is only 21.  They have great chemistry and might be one of the biggest surprises of the season.  If Iguodala and Holiday get hot, the 76ers could make some real noise.

Why they won’t be: Unfortunately the Collins factor can go only so far.  At some point you need talent and depth and the 76ers don’t have enough of either.  I could see them playing either the Heat or Celtics tough, but this team isn’t ready to win a series yet.

Bold Prediction: Philly takes Miami to 6 games.

New Orleans Hornets

Why they will be Champions: Chris Paul, Chris Paul, defense, and did I mention Chris Paul?  Any time a team has one of the best point guards in the NBA they have a chance.  While the injury to David West is crippling for New Orleans, they are still a good team who play tough D and have one of the best field generals in the game.

Why they won’t be: A matchup with the Lakers in the first round.  LA is just too big and too talented up and down their roster for New Orleans to upset.  Talent wise these two teams aren’t even close; combine that with the fact that they will have to play 2-4 games in the Staples Center and the outlook is pretty bleak.  One caveat, should LA slip up against San Antonio or Sacramento before the season ends, Dallas will likely get the 2 seed.  In a matchup with Dallas New Orleans has a real shot to win a series.  However, I can’t see New Orleans going on the road 2 series—not too mention to win the title they would need to go on the road in 4 series—in a row and continue to win.

Bold Prediction: Hornets get swept by the Lakers.

New York Knicks

Why they will be Champions:  In a word, talent.  The Knicks have 2 of the best players in the NBA in Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire; that is a huge advantage in any series.  In any series—excluding the Heat—the Knicks star-power should be as good-or-better than their opponents.  In addition, the Knicks also have a solid supporting cast in Chauncey Billups, Landry Fields, Rony Turiaf, and Sheldon Willimas.  Every day the new-look Knicks are getting better at playing with one another.  They currently have a ton of momentum on their side, winning their last 7 games.  Bottom line, even though they are a 6 seed, the Knicks are going to be a tough out for anyone.

Why they won’t be: Defense.  Their issues with team chemistry are gradually being solved, but their issues on defense have remained the same.  Last Sunday they made the Pacers look like the 2007 Phoenix Suns and barely escaped with a 1 point win.  To be honest, I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see the Knicks shock the world and beat the Celtics; especially if the Celtics can’t get their offense together.  But eventually the lack of defense will inevitably catch up with them.  While the Knicks have 2 legitimate superstars, the rest of their team lacks the kind of depth and defensive play normally associated with Champions.  This is a team that is primed to be a contender for the next 5 years, but until they get a younger PG, a better bench, and learn to play defense, the second-round will be their ceiling.

Bold Prediction:  The Knicks will take the Celtics to at least 6—if not 7—games and will win a game in Boston.

Portland Trailblazers

Why they will be Champions:  I think Portland might be the most under-appreciated team in the NBA this year.  The Blazer roster is absolutely stacked with talent: Camby, Aldridge, and Wallace up front, Batum, Matthews, Miller, and Roy in the backcourt.  This is one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the NBA.  They are big enough and long enough to bang with the Lakers, while also being good enough in the backcourt to run with the Thunder.  They give matchup problems to whomever they play and will be a tough out for any team.

Why they won’t be:  They will likely have to go the road for three straight series just to get through the Western Conference.  That is a tough task for any team, especially a team whose best player has no knees on his best day.  If the Blazers could perfect time travel a la James Cameron in “Terminator” and transport Brandon Roy from 2 years ago to this team, they might be my pick to be champions.  Unfortunately there is no such thing as time travel and Brandon Roy will probably never be the same player again.  I think the Blazers could surprise a lot of people and win a series—regardless of their opponent—or 2, but eventually all of those road games will wear them out.  The Blazers are a team to watch-out for next year, but for now the NBA title is still a Pipe-dream.

Bold Prediction: The Blazers will beat the Mavs in 6 games.

Atlanta Hawks

Why they will be Champions:  ….thinking….Is “they have the highest-paid player from the summer of 2010 Free Agent class” a good enough positive spin for why the Atlanta Hawks will be champions?  If not than I have nothing.

Why they won’t be:  They are built for mediocrity, Joe Johnson is overrated, Marvin Williams is a bust, Jeff Teague doesn’t have as bright a future as they thought, Josh Smith is already packing his suitcases in anticipation of being traded this summer.   Combine all of that with the fact that they are facing the team that absolutely lambasted them in the playoffs last year and you have the recipe for disaster.

Bold Prediction: Will be swept yet again by the Magic.

Denver Nuggets

Why they will be Champions: They are by far the deepest team in the NBA.  Literally every one of Denver’s first 10 players could start on 80% of the teams in the NBA.  Not only that, since the Melo trade trade Denver has been by far the best team in the NBA.  Don’t believe me?  Well the stats don’t lie:  Since trading Carmelo Anthony Denver went 19-7, not only that but their scoring margin was +10ppg.  To give you an idea of how good that is, the last team to average a scoring margin of +10ppg was the 2008 Celtics, and they won the title.  Denver can do it all, play In transition, play tough D, rebound, and shoot.

Why they won’t be:  The team that gave Denver the most trouble all year, the Thunder, is who they are playing in the first round.  OKC’s size on the perimeter gives Denver a lot of matchup problems.  In addition Denver is going to have play pretty much every series on the road.

Bold Prediction: You are going to have to wait for part 2 for this prediction ;).

NCAA Tournament “Second-Round”

                It seems rather weird that we are calling the play-in games the opening round.  How can 60 teams get a bye?  I don’t know why the networks and analysts don’t just cal them what they are: play-in games.  Calling these games the opening round is like calling Sammie and Ronnie the main attraction of “Jersey Shore.”  Sure we watch “Jersey Shore” to see Ronnie do a three-way kiss while Sammie is home or to see Sammie get caught texting some other guy, but that is all surface humor.  The real attraction to “Jersey Shore” is the witty remarks of Pauly D and the Situation, seeing what Snookie will do when she’s hammered this episode, and watching Vinny use the vuvuzela whenever ugly girls are at the house.  The play-in games are Ronnie and Sammie, we watch them because technically they are “NCAA tournament games”—and because the TV leaves a little to be desired on Tuesday and Wednsday nights--but they are not the reason we watch the tournament.  We watch because we want to see Morehead State take down Louisville, not to see Clemson pound UAB or to see UNC-Asheville earn the right to be obliterated by Pittsburgh.  Anyway that’s the end of my rant, here is what I took from yesterday and what I’m looking forward to about today:

                Louisville lost to Morehead State, wow.  Not only did they beat them, they outplayed them.  I kept waiting for Louisville’s press to turn them over 3 or 4 possessions in a row and it just never happened.  Right around 5 minutes left in the second-half  I began to get the feeling that Louisville was just destined to lose this game.  You know the feeling you get when you’re playing an EA sports game and everything is going wrong due to the computer’s mistakes—holding penalties in Madden, players picking up their dribble in NBA games, errors by the computer in MLB games, etc.—even though you feel like you are playing fine and should be winning?  That’s how I felt about Louisville yesterday.  I didn’t even think the Cardinals were playing that bad, they just ran into a hot team.  When Demonte Harper picked up his dribble to shoot the game-winning 3 there was no doubt in my mind, I knew before  the shot even left his hand that it was going to be cash.  The good thing about that loss is that even though I had Louisville going to the Sweet 16 in virtually every bracket I made, so did every other half-wit in this country.  No one could be dumb enough to think a 13 seed could beat a Rick Pitino coached team in the opening round at a neutral –site, right?  I was so wrong about this game its crazy, I think I was more confident in Louisville winning two games than any other team outside the four one-seeds.

                The other game that really piqued my interest yesterday was the Kentucky vs. Princeton game.  I didn’t turn that game on till 5 minutes left in the second-half because I figured within minutes of turning it on, Kentucky would go on a 20-2 run and put the game out of reach.  Turns out that didn’t happen.  I was more shocked about the Kentucky game being close than any other.  Kentucky should have been a nightmare matchup for an Ivy League school: Big, Fast, and filled with elite talent.  I thought Kentucky was going to score 100, I was way off.  The way I see it Kentucky can respond to this game in one of 2 ways: They could get the proverbial Bill Simmons “eff you edge” and proceed to pound their next 3 opponents, including Ohio State, and show everyone that they are the most talented team in the country.  The other way they could respond is to get scared that they aren’t as good as they thought they were and get upset by Bob Huggins for the second year in a row.  I’m hoping they respond in the first manner as I have them in the final four in a couple brackets.

                There weren’t any other real shockers to me yesterday.  Analysts—I’m looking at all of you ESPN—keep hyping Richmond’s victory of Vanderbilt as an upset.  I have a huge problem calling this game and the Gonzaga/St. John’s game an upset.  First of all lets define an “upset” in sports: My definition would be a team that wins a game in which it is given little to no chance to win (see Morehead State) and then shock everyone—analysts, fans, players, and  coaches—by winning.  Sure in the sense of seeding Richmond and Gonzaga pulled upsets.  However, leading up to Thursday all we heard was Richmond is really good, Vandy are overrated, Gonzaga are gelling at the right time, and I don’t know if St. John’s can hold up without DJ Kennedy.  If everyone thinks that the game is going to end in an upset, than it really isn’t an upset.  Of the 13 or so people who were at my house yesterday and are also in my bracket pool, I’m pretty sure only 2 of them picked Vandy to win.  That means that 11 out of 13 people picked Richmond, all the analysts picked Richmond, and the only people that didn’t pick Richmond were the NCAA selection committee.  That is not an upset and neither was Gonzaga.  Picking Richmond to win in the first round of your bracket isn’t a bold pick, it was pretty standard this year.  You want to hear bold?  In one of my brackets I had Michigan State playing in the Elite 8 (clank!), in another bracket I had Belmont playing Utah State in the second round(yea you can just burn that bracket now). 

                As for today there should be some decent games.  Texas just finished escaping Oakland by 4.  The Longhorns confuse me, I’ve been on the bandwagon all year and I really believe that they are one of the most talented teams in the country.  Yet they have this propensity for just losing awful games and not showing up in the tournament.  They were my no doubt pick to win the tourney before they collapsed at the end of the season. I have them in the Final Four in a few brackets, and I think that is a more than attainable goal provided that Rick Barnes doesn’t have to coach a close game with under 5 minutes to play. 

                I’m pumped for this George Mason/Villanova game.  I think Mason is probably the most underrated team in the country.  It’s unfortunate that they were given an 8 seed because even if they win they have to play the best team in the country in the second oops I mean third round.  Had Mason been given a 7 or a 10 seed I might have picked them to go the elite 8 in all of my brackets; I think they are that good.  Other games that I’m pumped to watch are Florida State/TAM, Memphis/Arizona, Georgia/Washington, Xavier/Marquette, and Georgetown/VCU. 

I’ll probably update my thoughts later tonight after I see the afternoon games.  I will definitely have a preview for the second round and my thoughts on today’s games tomorrow.

Jets are Down but not Out

45-3...ouch.  The Jets for all practical purposes looked awful on Monday night. The Patriots thoroughly lambasted them in every aspect of the game.  The game was over at halftime...Devin McCourty officially put the nail in the coffin on the first drive of the second-half; intercepting Sanchez on the 2.

However forgive me if I'm not ready to proclaim the New England Patriots Super Bowl Champs or the Jets a fraud.  I do belive New England are the best team in the AFC right now, their record alone shows that.  But what has gotten lost in the media since last nght's game is the fact that the Jets dominated the Patriots at home in week 2.  Don't get me wrong, I think New England are definitely the better team and I don't believe the Jets can win in Foxboro.  However, to take last night as a referendum on both the Jets and Patriots season is ridiculous.  One need not look farther that the 2007 season to see that.  The 07' Giants allowed 30+ points 4 times and lost by 20+ twice; yet they still managed to beat undefeated New England in the Super Bowl.

The Jets are not the 2007 Giants; they are very different teams in terms of style.  But the Jets are certainly still an elite team.  It is true that they are 1-3 against teams with a winning record.  But in 2 of those games (Baltimore and Green Bay), the Jets were in the game the entire way.  This is the only game in which the Jets have been dominated all season, and I don't expect it to happen again.  Last night's game may not have been an aberration in-so-far that the Patriots are better than the Jets; but they are not 42 points better.  The next 4 games will tell how good the Jets really are.

The Jets still play both Chicago and Pittsburgh on the road.  If they lose both of those games, I will agree with the media and say they are not a legitimate championship contender.  However, if the Jets close out the season 4-0, can anyone really say that they are not?  Pittsburgh is certainly an elite team and the Bears are looking better and better every week.  I think that playoff seeding will play the most important role in how far the Jets can go.

If the Jets have to go into New England again in the post-season, I don't think they can win.  However, just because New England is sitting at 10-2 today doesn't guarantee that they will finish 14-2.  Whats more is that if the Pats somehow--although this scenario is unlikely--slip up against Miami or Buffalo, the Jets will control their own destiny in the division again.  The Jets are more than capable of beating New England in the swirling winds of the meadowlands; week 2 told us that.  It is also possible that the Jets will not have to play New England again at all.  Who is to say that Baltimore won't be the 6 seed and upset New England in the second round?  That is a very possible scenario and, just to remind everyone, the Ravens made New England look more like school girls than an NFL power in last year's playoff meeting.

The Jets bandwagon definitely lost some of its passengers last night; not without merit either.  However, this team has 2 more tough contests in which they can prove their ability.  People scoff at their win in Cleveland as "escaping from a bad team" yet Cleveland pounded the Pats and Saints in the two weeks prior.  The NFL is a fickle and unpredictable game, no one will praise a 45-3 win if the Pats slip up against the Dolphins or Bils.  No one will call the Jets illegitimate if they beat the Bears and Steelers on the road.  In fact, this game may end up being one of the most important games they play all year.

The Jets have talked the talk--much to my delight--and walked the walk all year; until last night.  It is more than possible a beating at the hands of their rivals will get them more focused.  Some of the Jets larger issues had been covered up till last night (inability to get to the quarterback), those issues are much more obvious and easier to address today.  No one wants to listen about what they did wrong while their 9-2, after a 45-3 loss players better be listening...Of course if the Jets lay an egg at home against Miami this week I'll eat my hat and call them dead.  The Jets aren't the first team to be humbled after about of overconfidence.

"Plax only thinks we're gonna score 17 points??"  I'm sure Giants fans remember that quite well.  For anyone who doesn't, thats Tom Brady before playing the Giants in the 07' Super Bowl; we all know how that turned out.  If anyone had been told going into that post-season the Giants were going to run the table, they would have laughed.  But sure enough they did and the unbeatable Pats folded.  I think the Jets will bounce back from this loss.

In a league of parody, a team doesn't get to 9-2 without being elite.  If the Jets had lost 24-21 in a close game would anyone be calling them frauds today?  The Jets had a ton of problems last night--most of them self-inflicted--aside from getting run over by Tom Brady.  Steve Weatherford punted the ball 13 yards down 10-0, Rex Ryan made an awful challenge call and an even worse decision decided to kick a 53 yard field goal with the much-maligned Nick Folk.  Braylon Edwards ended two first half drives with dropped passes.  Eric Smith comitted an assinine pass interference on a ball that Rob Gronkowski had absolutely no chance to catch.  All of this happened in the first half and resulted with the Jets going into the locker room trailing 24-3.  Putting your second-year quarterback in that kind of hole, on the road, in Foxboro, is a recipe for a blowout.  If you take out the Jets miscues, this is probably a much closer game.

Anyway enough ranting...here are my predictions for the way the playoffs will shape up:

AFC
1. New England (13-3)
2. Pittsburgh (12-4)
3. Indiannapolis (10-6)
4. Kansas City (10-6)
5. Baltimore (12-4)
6. New York (12-4)

NFC
1. Atlanta (13-3)
2. New York (11-5)
3. Green Bay (11-5)
4. St. Louis (9-7)
5. New Orleans (12-4)
6. Philadelphia (11-5)

MVP: Tom Brady
Offensive Player of the Year: Arian Foster
Defensive Player of the Year: Clay Matthews
Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick
 

50 Thoughts and Predictions about the NBA in 2010-11…Pat Forde style

After a week of basketball I decided to write my thoughts and predictions on what will happen in the NBA this year.  I wrote this post similar to the way Pat Forde writes his 40 thoughts column for ESPN.

Teams That Look Different From

1.         Miami are going to be really good this year…2.  Celtics game aside, the Heat have looked dominant in their 2 other games and the Celtics are probably one of the two toughest matchups for the Heat in the NBA (the other being the Lakers).

3.      The Nets are going to win more than 12 games this year…4.  Lopez, Favors, and Harris have all looked pretty good so far…5.  Troy Murphy comes back this weekend setting up the Nets to have one of the better front courts in the NBA

6.  Oklahoma City might become one of the best teams in the NBA for the next decade…7. OKC might be a top 3 team in the NBA this year…8.  Youngest starting lineup that are only going to get better (how scary is it that Kevin Durant just turned 22??!!!!!)

9.  Fact: Phoenix came up 2 wins short of a finals appearance last year. ..10. Fact: Phoenix will not make the playoffs this year…11.  Forcing an undersized Hedo Turkgolu to play the 4 makes an already small front court smaller (they may give up more points in the paint than any team in the NBA this year)…12. Prediction: Steve Nash will want out well before the deadline and Phoenix is lottery bound.

13.  Ray Felton has looked really good for the Knicks so far, he’s gelling perfectly into the Dantoni offense…14.  Stoudemire may not be that much better than David Lee, but the Knicks are playing with a lot more intensity than they ever have in the Dantoni era…15.  The better Wilson Chandler looks, the closer the Knicks are to landing Melo…16. Crazy Prediction that would be really cool: Knicks get Melo from the Nuggets and trade all of their draft picks for the next 3 years to get Nash ( Can’t you just picture Nash and Amare reuniting under Dantoni with Melo on the wing), that team would be scary good.

New and Potential New Looks for Players

17.  Lebron’s recent Nike ad was so good that it took my hate for Lebron from a 10 to a 9.5...18. Watching Lebron play now is so different from the last 7 years of his career, he always used to just look like he loved the game.  Now he looks like basketball is strictly business to him.

19.  Other than the inevitable Melo trade, I think the next most likely superstar to get traded is Chris Paul…20.  The odds of Paul getting moved aren’t very good, but can’t you just picture New Orleans—headed for another dud season—at the deadline realizing that this team just isn’t good enough and won’t be for at least 3 or 4 more years…21.  If New  Orleans realizes this, I think the Magic seem like the most plausible contender for him to be moved too (unless of course the Knicks fail to get Melo and New Orleans agrees to take Chandler, Gallo, Curry)….22.  If the Magic get Paul, they are probably as good as either Miami or Boston.

23.  John Wall is going to be a star in this league (although he won’t be able to stop Blake Griffin from winning the Rookie of the Year award)…24.  Wall’s clear ability necessitates the trade of Gilbert Arenas (at some point)…25.  If the Wiz decide to move Arenas I wonder who would be interested…26. He would be the ideal fit for a team like Portland…27.  Unfortunately, Portland has only just gotten over the “Jail-blazers” era and bringing in a gun toting point guard who poses “guns up” pre-game for photos, might not be too endearing for Blazers fans…28. Other possible destinations I could see: New York, San Antonio, maybe Denver??

Bold (At times insane) Eastern Conference Predictions:

29.  The Eastern Conference Playoff order will go like this: 1. Miami  2. Orlando  3. Chicago  4. Boston  5. Atlanta  6. New York  7. Charlotte  8. New Jersey

30.  Miami, Orlando, and Boston all sweep their first round series…31.  The Knicks upset Chicago…32.  Boston shocks Miami in 6 games (Rondo might average a triple double a game with the Miami PGs guarding him)…33.  Orlando sweeps New York…34.  Boston beats Orlando in 7

Bold (Not nearly as crazy) Western Conference Predictions

35.  The Western Conference Playoff order will go like this: 1. Oklahoma City  2.LA Lakers  3. Dallas  4. Portland  5. Utah  6. San Antonio (limping into the playoffs) 7. Denver  8. Golden State (just edging out the Clippers)…36.  OKC cruise…37. All three other Series go 6 games with LA, San Antonio, and Portland winning…38. OKC beat Portland in 6…39. LA sweep San Antonio…40. LA beat OKC in 7.

NBA Finals

41. Boston beat LA in 7 games…42. Rajon Rondo is series MVP…43. Kobe begins the Favre-esque retirement rumor stage of his career…44. Ray Allen retires.

Awards

45.  MVP goes to Kevin Durant with a higher percentage of votes than Republicans will win seats in the midterm elections.

46.  Defensive Player of the year goes to Lebron James (he has to win some award)

47.  Rookie of the Year goes to Blake Griffin (John Wall will get votes because of the hype but has no chance to win…Griffin already looks like a seasoned vet)

48.  Eastern Conference All Star Starters: Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Dwayne Wade, Rajon Rondo, Carmelo Anthony (that’s as bold a prediction as you are going to get but I just don’t see Denver holding onto him more than 2 months.)

49.  Western Conference All Star Starters: Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki

50.  This is going to be a wild year.  Since my Nets probably won’t be great again I’ve come up with a short list of 4 teams I would like to see do well: the Knicks, Celtics, Thunder, and anyone who are playing the Heat.

The BCS Conundrum....Inside the Boise State Bubble

It’s deep night on a cold Tuesday in late October.  The setting is the blue turf of Bronco Stadium in Boise, Idaho, where the home-town Broncos have just moved to 7-0.  Spirits are high for anyone who follows the Broncos.  They have just blown out another team—Louisiana Tech—49-20.  Although compared to what the rest of the country is used to, this is a close game for Boise State.  Despite the fact that Boise State has won every game except for one—Virginia Tech—by double digits, all Boise State fans are filled with the same two feelings they are filled with every year; hope and dread.

            Boise State know that this year gives them the best shot that they will ever have of playing in a BCS championship game.  However, the Broncos are also aware that if any two AQ conference teams go undefeated, it will leave them on the outside again.  Boise knows this because after opening the season ranked #3 in the country, they are still ranked #3 in the BCS.  They have been leapfrogged in the rankings 3 times already and leapfrogged by Auburn in the BCS this week.

            Boise’s best hope at a shot in the national title game is for all of the undefeated AQ conference teams to lose.  However, even if this were to happen, it doesn’t guarantee Boise a spot in the national title game.  Even if every other undefeated in the country loses, it is still conceivable (albeit unlikely) that they could be denied based on the 6 different computer rankings included in the BCS formula.  It is, however, very likely that if a team (let’s say Oregon) is the only other undefeated team left after the regular season, they will not be included.  That’s because if a 1-loss team from an AQ conference runs the table, that they will leap-frog Boise State and find themselves playing Oregon in the National Title Game. 

            The fans at Boise State are most afraid of this scenario  but are helpless to stop it.  However, in terms of solving the problem of the BCS, this might be the best possible scenario that there is.   Only once in the history of the BCS—Hawaii circa 2007—has there been a situation in which there have been 2 or less undefeated teams and one didn’t make the national title game.  However, there is a major difference between Hawaii in 2007 and Boise State of this year.  Boise State is a horse of a different color, since the 2006 Boise State team was 56-4.  No, you didn’t read that wrong.  In addition, they have beaten Oklahoma and TCU in BCS games, lost another bowl game to TCU by 1, beaten Oregon twice, beaten Oregon State twice, beaten Virginia Tech, and beaten Utah.  In fact the only loss to an AQ team since 2006 that Boise has suffered was to Washington in 2007.  Boise began this year at #3 in the country, and should they finish the year ranked #1 or #2 in the Coaches Poll, undefeated, and out of the national title game, there will be a bigger calling for a playoff than there has been in the history of the BCS.

            The Boise State team resides in a place that I like to call the mid-major bubble.  In this case, I am calling it the Boise State bubble because they are the best team in the mid-major bubble this year.  I call it a bubble, because the mid-major (non-AQ conference) teams in the FBS are literally trapped within a bubble.  Since the creation of the BCS, in 1998, this bubble has become more and more obvious with each passing season.  There have been multiple mid-major undefeated teams—who have won BCS bowls—since the creation of the BCS.  Not one of these teams has had the opportunity to play in a National Championship game. 

            The reason it is so difficult for a mid-major conference team to make a National Championship game is twofold.  First and foremost is strength of schedule.  When a dominant mid-major emerges—such as Utah in 2004 and 2008 or Boise State in 2009—they cruise through their conference because of how weak the rest of the conference is.  That doesn’t mean that a team like Boise or Utah is incapable of beating an Alabama or Oregon, but they aren’t as battle tested.  Alabama has to go through a grueling schedule every season, due to the fact that they play in an ultra-competitive conference.  Boise, on the other hand, fatten their record every year by beating the likes of Louisiana Tech and San Jose State.  When comparing the resumes of these two teams, one-loss Alabama is still much more impressive than no-loss Boise State.  The second problem that mid-major powers encounter goes hand in hand with strength of schedule; their opponents’ recruiting ability.  A team like Boise State is forever in exile in the strength of schedule department because no one else in their conference can recruit like they can.  A team like San Jose State is never going to be able to recruit a blue-chip prospect as long as Boise State is dominant.  No top prospect will ever be tempted to go to a team which gets repeatedly pounded every year.  This means a team like Boise State will never have comparable competition to a team from the SEC.  What results from these factors is a ceiling for all mid-major teams.  All of the mid-major teams go into every year knowing that their ceiling—barring an absolute miracle—is playing in a BCS game; a BCS game that is not the National Championship game.

            Now I am not saying that I believe that an undefeated Boise State team is more deserving of a spot in the National Championship game over a one-loss Alabama team.  I do not think that Boise is more deserving at all to be honest.  I think Boise is an elite team, but I also believe that it is nearly impossible to go undefeated in the SEC without a good-deal of luck.  However I do believe that teams like Boise, TCU, and Utah shouldn’t be excluded from the National Championship game before the season even starts.  Yet, this is the conundrum which the BCS faces.             

            This problem requires a solution.  That solution should be some form of playoffs.  The BCS in and of itself is fine.  It does a fairly good job of ranking the ability of teams based on their performance and the competition that they faced.  The problem arises because only two teams can be chosen to play in the National Championship game.  The problem with having only the top two teams play for the title is that there will always be controversy.  There has rarely been a year, since the inception of the BCS, that there hasn’t been a controversy over who should play for the title or who should play in other BCS bowls.  The BCS has shown that mid-majors have almost no chance to play in the title game.  However, the BCS has also shown that mid-majors have the ability to finish in the top 8 of the BCS standings.  The significance of mid-major teams being able to finish in the top 8 means that if there was a playoff format, the mid-major teams would be more than capable of making the playoffs and would be given an opportunity they never had before; the ability to play for a national championship.

            My playoff system proposal is simple:  First the regular season must be slightly shortened.  This means that teams which play in conferences without a championship game, are limited to only 12 regular season games.  Teams that play in a conference with a championship game, must have their regular season shortened to 11 games (3 non-conference opponents and 8 conference games), with the conference championship being the 12^th game.  In addition, the amount of bye weeks that each team has must be shortened to 1 (in the current formats many teams have as many as 3 byes).  Shortening the byes and regular season would allow for the first two rounds of the playoffs to be played when the regular FBS season would normally be completed.  You would keep the current BCS system in place.  Following the regular season and conference title games, you would take the top 8 teams in the BCS standings and set up a standard playoff system with them (#1 in the BCS vs. #8 etc.).  The first two rounds will be played at each higher seeds home-field in the two weeks following the regular season.  After those two weeks there will be the usual 3-4 week layoff leading up to the bowl season and the National Championship Game will be played on its regularly allotted day by the NCAA. 

            Critics of the playoff system will point out several flaws.  First that there will still be controversy over who the last team into the playoffs is.  For example, a team ranked 8^th in the coaches poll could miss the playoffs because a team ranked 9^th or 10^th is higher in the BCS.  However, this is not really that big of a flaw, the fact of the matter is that if a team is ranked 8^th in the BCS, they have minimal chance of winning on the road for two weeks and reaching the national championship game.  Second, critics will say that it ruins the Bowl system.  In actuality, this format doesn’t alter the bowl system at all.  Think about this for a second…all a bowl really is, is a reward game for a team that plays .500 ball or better during the regular season.  However, Bowl games really don’t mean anything, and the general public understands this.  The only Bowl game that is anything other than a “reward” game is the National Championship Game.  We already have a National Championship Game, and yet millions of people still watch the other Bowl games.  I see no reason for this to change, if good college football games are on TV, people will still watch them and the schools will still make money from their Bowl games.  I would even say keep the current BCS Bowls format together.  If a team that should be playing in the Rose Bowl (Pac-10 or Big-10 school), but made the National Championship Game, than we can still do what we do now; have the team that finishes 2^nd in their conference play for them.

            By creating a playoff system, two things are simultaneously accomplished.  First the NCAA will have accomplished something that seemed previously impossible: giving dominant mid-major teams the chance to play for a National Championship.  The second thing that will be accomplished, is if a mid-major runs the table in the playoffs and wins the National Championship, there will be no debate whether or not they are deserving of the title because they will have beaten 3 of the top 8 schools in the country to do it.  The second point is the most important, because even if Boise State bucks the trend and wins a championship this year, people are still going to say that they didn’t deserve to be there because they didn’t beat good enough opponents.  By setting up a system that would force Boise to have to consecutively beat 3 top 8 teams in a row, the strength of schedule argument against the mid-majors would be a mute point.

            These changes—or some form of them—may come to college football soon.  However, it likely requires another year in which every college football fan is disappointed in the BCS again.  In the current system Boise State—and every other non-AQ conference FBS team-- are trapped in an inescapable bubble, with a ceiling of being in a BCS game.  The solution to popping this bubble is by incorporating a playoff system similar to the one which I proposed.  However, this year is getting so crazy that Boise could conceivably end up in a national championship game.  As a fan of the underdog, I would love to see this happen.  But if Boise State were to make it this year and win it, the BCS would simply say “See Boise did it, everyone can do it,” and nothing would be changed.  If this happens and nothing is changed, it might be another 10-15 years before we see a mid-major make a run for the National Championship game.  Therefore, as a proponent of parody and playoffs, my head tells me that it would be great for college football if Boise State were to get screwed by the BCS again.

            College football has a conundrum.  That conundrum is the BCS.  It is a ruthlessly efficient machine that puts a ceiling on mid-major conference teams.  However, the BCS in and of itself is good.  A one-loss Alabama team has proven itself more than an undefeated Boise State team; by virtue of their strength of schedule.  Neither of these teams should be excluded from having a chance to play for a National Championship.  Therefore, taking the BCS rankings and converting them to playoffs is by far the most logical solution to the problem.  Until this happens there will always be a conundrum, Boise fans will always feel hope and dread, and true college football fans will be watching the rest of this season from the edge of their seats wondering if Boise can do the unthinkable and burst the mid-major bubble. These fans will be keeping alive the same argument the BCS hears every year: does strength of schedule trump rank?  We will never really know until he FBS changes.  This is the Boise State Bubble.