Saints vs 49ers
Perhaps the most interesting game of the weekend is New Orleans at San Francisco. While the Saints are slight favorites, many think the 49ers will pull off the upset today. I respectfully disagree with those critics.
The case for the Saints is pretty simple: They have the most explosive offense in the NFL. Not only were New Orleans ranked 1st in passing, they were ranked 6th in rushing. While the Saints and Niners finished with the same record, the Saints haven’t lost a game since October 30th. The other advantage that the Saints hold is that they get to play against Alex Smith. While Smith hasn’t been the dumpster fire this year that he was the last 6 years, he is still Alex Smith. If the Saints are able to score early and frequently, Smith will be forced to throw more than the 49ers would like. The biggest problem with the 49ers is their god-awful pass protection. If this game turns into a shootout--and I believe it will--Alex Smith will have to throw against the team that blitzes the most of any team in the league. The key to this game is for the Saints to score points. And while people oft point to the fact that the Saints have much more trouble playing outdoors, they forget two things: Drew Brees threw for 400 yards in the playoffs against the Seahawks last year and the Saints still averaged 25 points a game outdoors this year.
The case for the 49ers is a little more complicated: Not only do the 49ers host this game and play outdoors, their field is one of the only fields in the NFL that is not made up of field turf. This means the track could be much slower and hamper the Saints Run-N-Gun’ offense. In addition, the 49ers boast the NFC’s best defense and an elite pass rush. They also have the NFC’s next running game and are matching up against perhaps the league’s worst running defense. If the 49ers play a perfect game they can win this game. However, the 49ers offense is limited and are awful in the red zone. San Francisco kicked more field goals than any team in the league this year. Against the Saints they are going to need much more efficient in the red zone.
Essentially this game comes down to the San Francisco defense against the New Orleans offense. To win this game San Francisco will need to hold the Saints under 30 points and excel in the red zone. For the Saints to win this game they will need to make it a shoot out and force Alex Smith to throw often.
Bold Prediction: Saints 31 49ers 24...I’ll take the Super Bowl MVP who set the record for passing yards this year.
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