Saturday, January 14, 2012

NFL Divisional Round Preview

After a 7 month layoff, The Sports Blog is back!!!  Here is the first of our four part NFL Divisional Round preview.  Written by friend of the blog Evan Petitt:



AFC Divisional Matchup: Ravens vs Texans

The Ravens finished the year with a 12-4 record, most notably going 8-0 at home. One could argue that the Ravens best offense is their defense. They have been nothing short of fantastic giving up less than 17 points per game, under 200 yards passing per game, and the 2nd best rush defense in the league.  That last part is most crucial, considering their opponent, the Texans, have the 2nd best rush offense in the league. Houston has potentially the most talented dual threat RB in the league in Arian Foster. Offensively the Ravens are nothing flashy. Joe Flacco is at best an average QB, he’s had one game winning drive that sticks in my mind, the second time the Ravens beat the Steelers on the road. I consider Flacco to be the most overrated QB in the NFL. His great career win percentage can be attributed to good coaching, a dominant run game, and a stout defense year in, year out. The Ravens are led offensively by their All-Pro Running Back, Ray Rice. Rice collected 1,364 yards rushing and another 704 yards receiving, eclipsing 2000 total yards of total offense and 15 TD’s. Let’s not forget to mention he also led the Ravens in receptions by a whopping 19 over Anquan Boldin. Clearly the key to stopping the Ravens offensively is to halt their superstar playmaker. Don’t believe me? In the Ravens 4 losses this year, Rice ran for a COMBINED 155 yards rushing in those games and finished with 0 rushing touchdowns total. For all you math majors out there, that’s about 39 yards per game. Stopping Rice is going to be critical for the Texans if they want to win this game…

The Texans gutted out a 10-6 record after starting the year 10-3. They have had significant injuries on both sides of the ball with their starting QB Matt Shaub out for the year, their game changing pass rusher Mario Williams also done for the season, and their star WR Andre Johnson missing more than half the year. Most NFL teams who suffered these injuries would be prepping for their tee times this Sunday and not for a divisional playoff game. Give the coaching staff credit for finding ways to win without these key players. Maybe the biggest addition to the Texans is their new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. The Texans have never been known for their defense and have completely turned it around this year finishing in the top 5 in every major defensive category. Offensively, much like the Ravens, the Texans win games by effectively running the football. I have said all season that I believe the least talked about story in the NFL is how dominant the Texans run blocking is. Arian Foster and Ben Tate both finished in the top 25 in the league in YPC and Foster finished 2nd in the league in yards per game. It will be interesting to see if the Texans can get their running game going. If Texans can consistently get to 3rd down and 4 or less, I think they can point up some points. However if Houston leave their rookie QB Yates with consistent 3rd and longs or more it is going to be a long afternoon. This brings us to the million dollar question for the Texans: can TJ Yates win a playoff game in Baltimore? I believe he can. In the 5 games he’s started this year Yates has only had a QB rating of under 85 once. Don’t get me wrong, Yates won’t throw for 300 yards and 3 TD’s, but if he can be efficient and not turn the ball over the Texans will have a chance to win this game…

BOLD PREDICTION- Texans 16 Ravens 13

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