Saints vs 49ers
Perhaps the most interesting game of the weekend is New Orleans at San Francisco. While the Saints are slight favorites, many think the 49ers will pull off the upset today. I respectfully disagree with those critics.
The case for the Saints is pretty simple: They have the most explosive offense in the NFL. Not only were New Orleans ranked 1st in passing, they were ranked 6th in rushing. While the Saints and Niners finished with the same record, the Saints haven’t lost a game since October 30th. The other advantage that the Saints hold is that they get to play against Alex Smith. While Smith hasn’t been the dumpster fire this year that he was the last 6 years, he is still Alex Smith. If the Saints are able to score early and frequently, Smith will be forced to throw more than the 49ers would like. The biggest problem with the 49ers is their god-awful pass protection. If this game turns into a shootout--and I believe it will--Alex Smith will have to throw against the team that blitzes the most of any team in the league. The key to this game is for the Saints to score points. And while people oft point to the fact that the Saints have much more trouble playing outdoors, they forget two things: Drew Brees threw for 400 yards in the playoffs against the Seahawks last year and the Saints still averaged 25 points a game outdoors this year.
The case for the 49ers is a little more complicated: Not only do the 49ers host this game and play outdoors, their field is one of the only fields in the NFL that is not made up of field turf. This means the track could be much slower and hamper the Saints Run-N-Gun’ offense. In addition, the 49ers boast the NFC’s best defense and an elite pass rush. They also have the NFC’s next running game and are matching up against perhaps the league’s worst running defense. If the 49ers play a perfect game they can win this game. However, the 49ers offense is limited and are awful in the red zone. San Francisco kicked more field goals than any team in the league this year. Against the Saints they are going to need much more efficient in the red zone.
Essentially this game comes down to the San Francisco defense against the New Orleans offense. To win this game San Francisco will need to hold the Saints under 30 points and excel in the red zone. For the Saints to win this game they will need to make it a shoot out and force Alex Smith to throw often.
Bold Prediction: Saints 31 49ers 24...I’ll take the Super Bowl MVP who set the record for passing yards this year.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
NFL Divisional Round Preview
After a 7 month layoff, The Sports Blog is back!!! Here is the first of our four part NFL Divisional Round preview. Written by friend of the blog Evan Petitt:
BOLD PREDICTION- Texans 16 Ravens 13
AFC Divisional Matchup: Ravens vs Texans
The Ravens finished the year with a 12-4 record, most notably going 8-0 at home. One could argue that the Ravens best offense is their defense. They have been nothing short of fantastic giving up less than 17 points per game, under 200 yards passing per game, and the 2nd best rush defense in the league. That last part is most crucial, considering their opponent, the Texans, have the 2nd best rush offense in the league. Houston has potentially the most talented dual threat RB in the league in Arian Foster. Offensively the Ravens are nothing flashy. Joe Flacco is at best an average QB, he’s had one game winning drive that sticks in my mind, the second time the Ravens beat the Steelers on the road. I consider Flacco to be the most overrated QB in the NFL. His great career win percentage can be attributed to good coaching, a dominant run game, and a stout defense year in, year out. The Ravens are led offensively by their All-Pro Running Back, Ray Rice. Rice collected 1,364 yards rushing and another 704 yards receiving, eclipsing 2000 total yards of total offense and 15 TD’s. Let’s not forget to mention he also led the Ravens in receptions by a whopping 19 over Anquan Boldin. Clearly the key to stopping the Ravens offensively is to halt their superstar playmaker. Don’t believe me? In the Ravens 4 losses this year, Rice ran for a COMBINED 155 yards rushing in those games and finished with 0 rushing touchdowns total. For all you math majors out there, that’s about 39 yards per game. Stopping Rice is going to be critical for the Texans if they want to win this game…
The Texans gutted out a 10-6 record after starting the year 10-3. They have had significant injuries on both sides of the ball with their starting QB Matt Shaub out for the year, their game changing pass rusher Mario Williams also done for the season, and their star WR Andre Johnson missing more than half the year. Most NFL teams who suffered these injuries would be prepping for their tee times this Sunday and not for a divisional playoff game. Give the coaching staff credit for finding ways to win without these key players. Maybe the biggest addition to the Texans is their new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. The Texans have never been known for their defense and have completely turned it around this year finishing in the top 5 in every major defensive category. Offensively, much like the Ravens, the Texans win games by effectively running the football. I have said all season that I believe the least talked about story in the NFL is how dominant the Texans run blocking is. Arian Foster and Ben Tate both finished in the top 25 in the league in YPC and Foster finished 2nd in the league in yards per game. It will be interesting to see if the Texans can get their running game going. If Texans can consistently get to 3rd down and 4 or less, I think they can point up some points. However if Houston leave their rookie QB Yates with consistent 3rd and longs or more it is going to be a long afternoon. This brings us to the million dollar question for the Texans: can TJ Yates win a playoff game in Baltimore? I believe he can. In the 5 games he’s started this year Yates has only had a QB rating of under 85 once. Don’t get me wrong, Yates won’t throw for 300 yards and 3 TD’s, but if he can be efficient and not turn the ball over the Texans will have a chance to win this game…
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)