NFL Divisional Round Preview

Saints vs 49ers

Perhaps the most interesting game of the weekend is New Orleans at San Francisco. While the Saints are slight favorites, many think the 49ers will pull off the upset today.  I respectfully disagree with those critics.

The case for the Saints is pretty simple: They have the most explosive offense in the NFL.  Not only were New Orleans ranked 1st in passing, they were ranked 6th in rushing.  While the Saints and Niners finished with the same record, the Saints haven’t lost a game since October 30th.  The other advantage that the Saints hold is that they get to play against Alex Smith.  While Smith hasn’t been the dumpster fire this year that he was the last 6 years, he is still Alex Smith.  If the Saints are able to score early and frequently, Smith will be forced to throw more than the 49ers would like.  The biggest problem with the 49ers is their god-awful pass protection.  If this game turns into a shootout--and I believe it will--Alex Smith will have to throw against the team that blitzes the most of any team in the league.  The key to this game is for the Saints to score points.  And while people oft point to the fact that the Saints have much more trouble playing outdoors, they forget two things:  Drew Brees threw for 400 yards in the playoffs against the Seahawks last year and the Saints still averaged 25 points a game outdoors this year.

The case for the 49ers is a little more complicated:  Not only do the 49ers host this game and play outdoors, their field is one of the only fields in the NFL that is not made up of field turf.  This means the track could be much slower and hamper the Saints Run-N-Gun’ offense.  In addition, the 49ers boast the NFC’s best defense and an elite pass rush.  They also have the NFC’s next running game and are matching up against perhaps the league’s worst running defense.  If the 49ers play a perfect game they can win this game.  However, the 49ers offense is limited and are awful in the red zone.  San Francisco kicked more field goals than any team in the league this year.  Against the Saints they are going to need much more efficient in the red zone.

Essentially this game comes down to the San Francisco defense against the New Orleans offense.  To win this game San Francisco will need to hold the Saints under 30 points and excel in the red zone.  For the Saints to win this game they will need to make it a shoot out and force Alex Smith to throw often.

Bold Prediction: Saints 31 49ers 24...I’ll take the Super Bowl MVP who set the record for passing yards this year.

NFL Divisional Round Preview

After a 7 month layoff, The Sports Blog is back!!!  Here is the first of our four part NFL Divisional Round preview.  Written by friend of the blog Evan Petitt:

AFC Divisional Matchup: Ravens vs Texans

The Ravens finished the year with a 12-4 record, most notably going 8-0 at home. One could argue that the Ravens best offense is their defense. They have been nothing short of fantastic giving up less than 17 points per game, under 200 yards passing per game, and the 2^nd best rush defense in the league.  That last part is most crucial, considering their opponent, the Texans, have the 2^nd best rush offense in the league. Houston has potentially the most talented dual threat RB in the league in Arian Foster. Offensively the Ravens are nothing flashy. Joe Flacco is at best an average QB, he’s had one game winning drive that sticks in my mind, the second time the Ravens beat the Steelers on the road. I consider Flacco to be the most overrated QB in the NFL. His great career win percentage can be attributed to good coaching, a dominant run game, and a stout defense year in, year out. The Ravens are led offensively by their All-Pro Running Back, Ray Rice. Rice collected 1,364 yards rushing and another 704 yards receiving, eclipsing 2000 total yards of total offense and 15 TD’s. Let’s not forget to mention he also led the Ravens in receptions by a whopping 19 over Anquan Boldin. Clearly the key to stopping the Ravens offensively is to halt their superstar playmaker. Don’t believe me? In the Ravens 4 losses this year, Rice ran for a COMBINED 155 yards rushing in those games and finished with 0 rushing touchdowns total. For all you math majors out there, that’s about 39 yards per game. Stopping Rice is going to be critical for the Texans if they want to win this game…

The Texans gutted out a 10-6 record after starting the year 10-3. They have had significant injuries on both sides of the ball with their starting QB Matt Shaub out for the year, their game changing pass rusher Mario Williams also done for the season, and their star WR Andre Johnson missing more than half the year. Most NFL teams who suffered these injuries would be prepping for their tee times this Sunday and not for a divisional playoff game. Give the coaching staff credit for finding ways to win without these key players. Maybe the biggest addition to the Texans is their new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. The Texans have never been known for their defense and have completely turned it around this year finishing in the top 5 in every major defensive category. Offensively, much like the Ravens, the Texans win games by effectively running the football. I have said all season that I believe the least talked about story in the NFL is how dominant the Texans run blocking is. Arian Foster and Ben Tate both finished in the top 25 in the league in YPC and Foster finished 2^nd in the league in yards per game. It will be interesting to see if the Texans can get their running game going. If Texans can consistently get to 3^rd down and 4 or less, I think they can point up some points. However if Houston leave their rookie QB Yates with consistent 3^rd and longs or more it is going to be a long afternoon. This brings us to the million dollar question for the Texans: can TJ Yates win a playoff game in Baltimore? I believe he can. In the 5 games he’s started this year Yates has only had a QB rating of under 85 once. Don’t get me wrong, Yates won’t throw for 300 yards and 3 TD’s, but if he can be efficient and not turn the ball over the Texans will have a chance to win this game…

BOLD PREDICTION- Texans 16 Ravens 13

Reyes, the Key to the Fans and the Future

Go to a game at Citi Field one day.  As far as baseball parks go—ranging from amenities to field visibility—it is all you could ask for.  The architecture is beautiful for a baseball park.  If you look at the stadium from any possible angle, the same thought jumps into the onlookers head:  This stadium should host a perennial winner.  The perennial winner is exactly what is missing from Flushing Meadows in Queens.  The closest Citi Field gets to a perennial winner is the once a year trip that Raphael Nadal and Roger Federer make next door to the US Open.

            My generation (i.e. those born in 87’ or later) has been subject to 3 common thoughts about the New York Mets: Hope, heartbreak, and disappointment.  As far back as I can remember I would always somehow find a way to get myself excited for the Mets.  That is until the start of this baseball season.  This year I felt no excitement about the upcoming baseball season, no yearning to go to as many Mets games as I could.  There are many reasons for my lack of excitement, but they can be summed up like this:  Madoff, the disappointments of 2007 and 2008, David Wright forgetting how to hit in his mid 20s, and the fact that the marquee signings of the Mets offseason were D.J. Carrasco and Chris Young, I didn’t see much to look forward too.  No matter how hard I tried to get excited—and I tried everything from reading fantasy projections for every player on the Mets roster to trying to devalue the rosters of other teams in the NL East—I just could not bring myself  to care about the 2011 season…Fast-forward 2 months and, as usual, the Mets have found a way to reel me back in.

            The Mets 5-13 start didn’t get me all too excited, it was the 6 game win streak that followed.  All of a sudden I was having the annual irrational dreams of grandeur.  Of course the Mets then, in typical Mets fashion, went on to lose the next 4 games.  But for some reason this Met team doesn’t have any quit in it.  I don’t know why.  I don’t really think anyone knows to be honest.  If you had told me at the start of the season that Ike Davis and David Wright would both miss 2 months, Justin Turner would be starting at second base, Jason Bay would have 10 RBIs in June, and Mike Pelfrey would be pitching to an ERA over 5.00,  I would have told you they would be sitting in the basement of the National League.   But for some reason their winning percentage has continued to hover near .500, and they continue to excite me day by day.  The only reason I can think of for this unwarranted excitement is the reemergence of Jose Reyes as an elite shortstop.  And that my friends is the problem…

            The whole point of all my rambling to this point, was to convey the point that I have become excited about a team that I had previously no hope of getting excited for.  However, no “professional” baseball people seem to think that there is any way that Jose Reyes will be with the Mets for the rest of the season.  This seems to be the combined consensus of all of the baseball people that I have heard discuss Reyes this year: “The Mets are cash-strapped and can’t afford to re-sign him in the offseason, so they will likely trade him for a couple good prospects rather than get only 2 draft picks after the season.”  The first thing that I feel after I hear comments like this is sadness.  The second thing that I feel is rage. 

            The reason for my anger is two-fold.  One part is irrational, the other part, to me anyway, based on common sense.  The irrational part of my anger is the part that is sentimental.  I’ve watched Reyes play since his rookie year.  His entire career, to this point, all any Met fans have talked about was the limitless potential of Jose Reyes.  While we were busy talking about his potential, two things were happening to Reyes simultaneously: he turned into an all star shortstop—not quite realizing the potential that he had been labeled with by the fans and media—and he had bought an annual timeshare on the Mets Disabled List.  As Reyes’s career progressed and the Mets moved into Citi Field, all anyone could say about him was that if he could ever get fully healthy he would become an absolute superstar.  For Mets fans, talking about Reyes’s potential was like being in a dream, it was nice to think about, but none of us ever thought he would realize the hype…And then this year happened.  This is where my sentimentality makes me extremely angry at the prospect of either trading or losing Reyes via free agency.  I’ve watched him for so long and dreamt about him doing everything that he is doing now—leading the NL in batting average, as well as having 19 SBs and 11 Triples on June 8^th!—only to have it stripped away as it is happening.  As a die-hard fan it is very disheartening to see one of  “My Boys”—“My boys” is the term that I like to use to refer to players that began their careers on one of my favorite teams.  Players that I can never see myself rooting against no matter what other Jersey they Don…unless it’s a Phillies Jersey—traded away just as he becomes the player that us fans have been waiting 7 years for him to become.  The other reason for my rage about the prospect of Reyes leaving, is much more objective.

            I remember the Johan Santana trade very well.  Even though Santana has been injured, that trade is the equivalent of the Casino heist in “Ocean’s Eleven.”  The Twins were forced to trade Santana because they realized they would not be able to sign him in free agency and wanted to get something back.  The only “quality” piece they got back was Carlos Gomez who is no longer a Twin.  My biggest fear is that the Mets will panic just as the Twins did and trade Reyes to a team like the Giants for 3 mid-level (in other words prospects who will be no better than decent every day players at best) prospects because they fear that they cannot re-sign him.  This would be an atrocious turn of events because Reyes is currently playing like the best Shortstop in baseball and would seriously be in the MVP debate if the Mets’ record was a little better.  Yet if the Mets are intent on not re-signing Reyes, I can see them taking no other path than trading him.  However should they get—as I expect they will—60 cents on the dollar for Reyes, they will be setting the Franchise back several more years.  The only alternative to trading Reyes, is giving him the large contract he wants.

            It seems as if the Wilpon’s finances have put the Mets in such a hole that they will be unable to give a big contract to anyone.  This is a major problem, not just for the Mets and their fans, but for baseball in general.  New York teams need to be able to pay their players and be competitive year in and year out.  The market in New York is far too big for a MLB team to not be able to  pay their own players.  What is happening with the Mets and Reyes would never happen to the Yankees.  Had it been the Yankees, Reyes would have been locked up long-term last offseason when there was the ability to get a discount on his contract (Reyes had a good year last year, but nothing like the year he is having now).  Instead, the Mets decided to “See how he played this year” before making a determination.  To me that’s the Wilpons saying “We hope he gets injured so we can justify not giving him a contract.” Or “We hope he has a decent year so the media can’t kill us for trading him at mid-season.”  Unfortunately for the Wilpon’s Reyes has had a career year, a year that may command the oft mentioned “Carl Crawford contract.”  Giving Reyes $100 million shouldn’t be a problem for any New York team, yet it is a huge problem for the Mets.  If the Mets are forced to trade Reyes for 60 cents on the dollar or let him go in free agency, Bud Selig should take over the team.  Friend or not, Fred Wilpon has been destroying baseball for Mets fans and Bud Selig needs to step in at some point.  Should Reyes be traded or let go, the Wilpons will be alienating the entire fan base just like they did from 2002-2004.  The difference between then and now, is that then they didn’t give up any star players, the team got old and the front office didn’t make changes where necessary.  This team is relatively young and Reyes is in the prime of his career.  Letting a bonafide star leave New York would be the equivalent of what would have happened had the Cleveland Cavaliers let Lebron go without making any attempt to re-sign him.  The fallout will be devestating, and all Mets fans, myself included, will give up hope of seeing a good team in Queens again any time soon.

            So do what you want Fred and Jeff Wilpon.  But just know that the first step toward putting a perennial contender in Citi Field is re-signing your star shortstop.  “Bleeding cash” is the terminology that Fred Wilpon used to describe the Mets finances in Sports Illustrated.  Wilpon predicted that the Mets were on pace to lose upwards of $70 million this season.  Well I have news for YOU Fred Wilpon, should you let Jose Reyes go and relegate the Mets to the bottom of the NL East again, $70 million is just the beginning as the Mets will bleed even more cash as they bleed the life and excitement out of their fan base. 

NBA Playoff Preview Part I

                So the NBA season is over and that means its time for a playoff preview!!! Get excited.  This year might have been the most enjoyable NBA regular season that I can ever remember.  Heading into the Playoffs, I feel the same way about the NBA that just about everyone felt about the Masters around 4:30pm yesterday: That the title is completely up in the air.  For the first time that I can remember, there are about 7 different teams that have a legitimate shot to win the championship.  So lets take a look at all 16 playoff teams and why they will or will not win the title.

Indiana Pacers

Why they will be Champions:  The Pacers have a solid young core in Darren Collison, Danny Granger, Tyler Hansbrough, and Roy Hibbert…Trying to think of something else…still trying…nope that’s about it.

Why they won’t be Champions:  Lets not forget they are still the Indiana Pacers.  The only reason the Pacer’s are even in the playoffs is because they play in the disgustingly top-heavy eastern conference.  Beating out the Charlotte Bobcats for the last spot in the East is not particularly impressive.  While they have talent, the Bulls best 3 players are all better than the Pacer’s best (Granger).  Combine the Bull’s stifling D with the Pacer’s tendency to go on long offensive lapses and you have a very one-sided series.  The Pacer’s are going to have to shoot well to even win a game and I don’t see the rotting corpse of Mike Dunleavy hitting many jumpers with Luol Deng in his face.

Bold Prediction:  Pacer’s get swept in the opening round.

Memphis Grizzlies

Why they will be Champions:  They play Championship caliber defense, can bang inside, and have an above average backcourt.  You could make an argument that no team has done a bigger 180 from last year than the Grizz.  They can legitimately slug it out with any team in the NBA inside, and play better perimeter defense than almost any team in the NBA.  Tony Allen has transformed his game, Mike Conley has become an above average PG, and there is just an intensity that Memphis play with that no one foresaw when they were predicted to finish toward the bottom of the NBA pre-season.

Why they won’t be:  Rudy Gay.  Even though OJ Mayo has played extremely well in Gay’s absence, an offensive player of Gay’s caliber is irreplaceable in the playoffs.  They are also destined to play the Spurs—who have the best home record in the NBA—on the road in the first round.  Tyreke Evans, Steph Curry, Ricky Rubio, Ty Lawson, Brandon Jennings, and Jrue Holiday: All players the Grizz passed on for Hasheem Thabeet.  While they got Battier back, they could use another guard right now, especially heading into a faceoff with the Spurs.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Grizz force 6 or even 7 games against the Spurs, but ultimately I think the absence of Gay and not having home-court will be to much to overcome.

Bold Prediction: Memphis take the Spurs to 7 games.

Philadelphia 76ers

Why They will be Champions:  The Doug Collins factor.  As Bill Simmons points out here http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/110408&sportCat=nba …Doug Collins is a great motivator for one year.  Aside from Collins, this 76er team has some talent: Andre Iguodala is one of the most consistently underrated players in the NBA, Elton Brand has breathed life back into his career, and Jrue Holiday is only 21.  They have great chemistry and might be one of the biggest surprises of the season.  If Iguodala and Holiday get hot, the 76ers could make some real noise.

Why they won’t be: Unfortunately the Collins factor can go only so far.  At some point you need talent and depth and the 76ers don’t have enough of either.  I could see them playing either the Heat or Celtics tough, but this team isn’t ready to win a series yet.

Bold Prediction: Philly takes Miami to 6 games.

New Orleans Hornets

Why they will be Champions: Chris Paul, Chris Paul, defense, and did I mention Chris Paul?  Any time a team has one of the best point guards in the NBA they have a chance.  While the injury to David West is crippling for New Orleans, they are still a good team who play tough D and have one of the best field generals in the game.

Why they won’t be: A matchup with the Lakers in the first round.  LA is just too big and too talented up and down their roster for New Orleans to upset.  Talent wise these two teams aren’t even close; combine that with the fact that they will have to play 2-4 games in the Staples Center and the outlook is pretty bleak.  One caveat, should LA slip up against San Antonio or Sacramento before the season ends, Dallas will likely get the 2 seed.  In a matchup with Dallas New Orleans has a real shot to win a series.  However, I can’t see New Orleans going on the road 2 series—not too mention to win the title they would need to go on the road in 4 series—in a row and continue to win.

Bold Prediction: Hornets get swept by the Lakers.

New York Knicks

Why they will be Champions:  In a word, talent.  The Knicks have 2 of the best players in the NBA in Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire; that is a huge advantage in any series.  In any series—excluding the Heat—the Knicks star-power should be as good-or-better than their opponents.  In addition, the Knicks also have a solid supporting cast in Chauncey Billups, Landry Fields, Rony Turiaf, and Sheldon Willimas.  Every day the new-look Knicks are getting better at playing with one another.  They currently have a ton of momentum on their side, winning their last 7 games.  Bottom line, even though they are a 6 seed, the Knicks are going to be a tough out for anyone.

Why they won’t be: Defense.  Their issues with team chemistry are gradually being solved, but their issues on defense have remained the same.  Last Sunday they made the Pacers look like the 2007 Phoenix Suns and barely escaped with a 1 point win.  To be honest, I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see the Knicks shock the world and beat the Celtics; especially if the Celtics can’t get their offense together.  But eventually the lack of defense will inevitably catch up with them.  While the Knicks have 2 legitimate superstars, the rest of their team lacks the kind of depth and defensive play normally associated with Champions.  This is a team that is primed to be a contender for the next 5 years, but until they get a younger PG, a better bench, and learn to play defense, the second-round will be their ceiling.

Bold Prediction:  The Knicks will take the Celtics to at least 6—if not 7—games and will win a game in Boston.

Portland Trailblazers

Why they will be Champions:  I think Portland might be the most under-appreciated team in the NBA this year.  The Blazer roster is absolutely stacked with talent: Camby, Aldridge, and Wallace up front, Batum, Matthews, Miller, and Roy in the backcourt.  This is one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the NBA.  They are big enough and long enough to bang with the Lakers, while also being good enough in the backcourt to run with the Thunder.  They give matchup problems to whomever they play and will be a tough out for any team.

Why they won’t be:  They will likely have to go the road for three straight series just to get through the Western Conference.  That is a tough task for any team, especially a team whose best player has no knees on his best day.  If the Blazers could perfect time travel a la James Cameron in “Terminator” and transport Brandon Roy from 2 years ago to this team, they might be my pick to be champions.  Unfortunately there is no such thing as time travel and Brandon Roy will probably never be the same player again.  I think the Blazers could surprise a lot of people and win a series—regardless of their opponent—or 2, but eventually all of those road games will wear them out.  The Blazers are a team to watch-out for next year, but for now the NBA title is still a Pipe-dream.

Bold Prediction: The Blazers will beat the Mavs in 6 games.

Atlanta Hawks

Why they will be Champions:  ….thinking….Is “they have the highest-paid player from the summer of 2010 Free Agent class” a good enough positive spin for why the Atlanta Hawks will be champions?  If not than I have nothing.

Why they won’t be:  They are built for mediocrity, Joe Johnson is overrated, Marvin Williams is a bust, Jeff Teague doesn’t have as bright a future as they thought, Josh Smith is already packing his suitcases in anticipation of being traded this summer.   Combine all of that with the fact that they are facing the team that absolutely lambasted them in the playoffs last year and you have the recipe for disaster.

Bold Prediction: Will be swept yet again by the Magic.

Denver Nuggets

Why they will be Champions: They are by far the deepest team in the NBA.  Literally every one of Denver’s first 10 players could start on 80% of the teams in the NBA.  Not only that, since the Melo trade trade Denver has been by far the best team in the NBA.  Don’t believe me?  Well the stats don’t lie:  Since trading Carmelo Anthony Denver went 19-7, not only that but their scoring margin was +10ppg.  To give you an idea of how good that is, the last team to average a scoring margin of +10ppg was the 2008 Celtics, and they won the title.  Denver can do it all, play In transition, play tough D, rebound, and shoot.

Why they won’t be:  The team that gave Denver the most trouble all year, the Thunder, is who they are playing in the first round.  OKC’s size on the perimeter gives Denver a lot of matchup problems.  In addition Denver is going to have play pretty much every series on the road.

Bold Prediction: You are going to have to wait for part 2 for this prediction ;).

NCAA Tournament “Second-Round”

                It seems rather weird that we are calling the play-in games the opening round.  How can 60 teams get a bye?  I don’t know why the networks and analysts don’t just cal them what they are: play-in games.  Calling these games the opening round is like calling Sammie and Ronnie the main attraction of “Jersey Shore.”  Sure we watch “Jersey Shore” to see Ronnie do a three-way kiss while Sammie is home or to see Sammie get caught texting some other guy, but that is all surface humor.  The real attraction to “Jersey Shore” is the witty remarks of Pauly D and the Situation, seeing what Snookie will do when she’s hammered this episode, and watching Vinny use the vuvuzela whenever ugly girls are at the house.  The play-in games are Ronnie and Sammie, we watch them because technically they are “NCAA tournament games”—and because the TV leaves a little to be desired on Tuesday and Wednsday nights--but they are not the reason we watch the tournament.  We watch because we want to see Morehead State take down Louisville, not to see Clemson pound UAB or to see UNC-Asheville earn the right to be obliterated by Pittsburgh.  Anyway that’s the end of my rant, here is what I took from yesterday and what I’m looking forward to about today:

                Louisville lost to Morehead State, wow.  Not only did they beat them, they outplayed them.  I kept waiting for Louisville’s press to turn them over 3 or 4 possessions in a row and it just never happened.  Right around 5 minutes left in the second-half  I began to get the feeling that Louisville was just destined to lose this game.  You know the feeling you get when you’re playing an EA sports game and everything is going wrong due to the computer’s mistakes—holding penalties in Madden, players picking up their dribble in NBA games, errors by the computer in MLB games, etc.—even though you feel like you are playing fine and should be winning?  That’s how I felt about Louisville yesterday.  I didn’t even think the Cardinals were playing that bad, they just ran into a hot team.  When Demonte Harper picked up his dribble to shoot the game-winning 3 there was no doubt in my mind, I knew before  the shot even left his hand that it was going to be cash.  The good thing about that loss is that even though I had Louisville going to the Sweet 16 in virtually every bracket I made, so did every other half-wit in this country.  No one could be dumb enough to think a 13 seed could beat a Rick Pitino coached team in the opening round at a neutral –site, right?  I was so wrong about this game its crazy, I think I was more confident in Louisville winning two games than any other team outside the four one-seeds.

                The other game that really piqued my interest yesterday was the Kentucky vs. Princeton game.  I didn’t turn that game on till 5 minutes left in the second-half because I figured within minutes of turning it on, Kentucky would go on a 20-2 run and put the game out of reach.  Turns out that didn’t happen.  I was more shocked about the Kentucky game being close than any other.  Kentucky should have been a nightmare matchup for an Ivy League school: Big, Fast, and filled with elite talent.  I thought Kentucky was going to score 100, I was way off.  The way I see it Kentucky can respond to this game in one of 2 ways: They could get the proverbial Bill Simmons “eff you edge” and proceed to pound their next 3 opponents, including Ohio State, and show everyone that they are the most talented team in the country.  The other way they could respond is to get scared that they aren’t as good as they thought they were and get upset by Bob Huggins for the second year in a row.  I’m hoping they respond in the first manner as I have them in the final four in a couple brackets.

                There weren’t any other real shockers to me yesterday.  Analysts—I’m looking at all of you ESPN—keep hyping Richmond’s victory of Vanderbilt as an upset.  I have a huge problem calling this game and the Gonzaga/St. John’s game an upset.  First of all lets define an “upset” in sports: My definition would be a team that wins a game in which it is given little to no chance to win (see Morehead State) and then shock everyone—analysts, fans, players, and  coaches—by winning.  Sure in the sense of seeding Richmond and Gonzaga pulled upsets.  However, leading up to Thursday all we heard was Richmond is really good, Vandy are overrated, Gonzaga are gelling at the right time, and I don’t know if St. John’s can hold up without DJ Kennedy.  If everyone thinks that the game is going to end in an upset, than it really isn’t an upset.  Of the 13 or so people who were at my house yesterday and are also in my bracket pool, I’m pretty sure only 2 of them picked Vandy to win.  That means that 11 out of 13 people picked Richmond, all the analysts picked Richmond, and the only people that didn’t pick Richmond were the NCAA selection committee.  That is not an upset and neither was Gonzaga.  Picking Richmond to win in the first round of your bracket isn’t a bold pick, it was pretty standard this year.  You want to hear bold?  In one of my brackets I had Michigan State playing in the Elite 8 (clank!), in another bracket I had Belmont playing Utah State in the second round(yea you can just burn that bracket now). 

                As for today there should be some decent games.  Texas just finished escaping Oakland by 4.  The Longhorns confuse me, I’ve been on the bandwagon all year and I really believe that they are one of the most talented teams in the country.  Yet they have this propensity for just losing awful games and not showing up in the tournament.  They were my no doubt pick to win the tourney before they collapsed at the end of the season. I have them in the Final Four in a few brackets, and I think that is a more than attainable goal provided that Rick Barnes doesn’t have to coach a close game with under 5 minutes to play. 

                I’m pumped for this George Mason/Villanova game.  I think Mason is probably the most underrated team in the country.  It’s unfortunate that they were given an 8 seed because even if they win they have to play the best team in the country in the second oops I mean third round.  Had Mason been given a 7 or a 10 seed I might have picked them to go the elite 8 in all of my brackets; I think they are that good.  Other games that I’m pumped to watch are Florida State/TAM, Memphis/Arizona, Georgia/Washington, Xavier/Marquette, and Georgetown/VCU. 

I’ll probably update my thoughts later tonight after I see the afternoon games.  I will definitely have a preview for the second round and my thoughts on today’s games tomorrow.

Jets are Down but not Out

45-3...ouch.  The Jets for all practical purposes looked awful on Monday night. The Patriots thoroughly lambasted them in every aspect of the game.  The game was over at halftime...Devin McCourty officially put the nail in the coffin on the first drive of the second-half; intercepting Sanchez on the 2.

However forgive me if I'm not ready to proclaim the New England Patriots Super Bowl Champs or the Jets a fraud.  I do belive New England are the best team in the AFC right now, their record alone shows that.  But what has gotten lost in the media since last nght's game is the fact that the Jets dominated the Patriots at home in week 2.  Don't get me wrong, I think New England are definitely the better team and I don't believe the Jets can win in Foxboro.  However, to take last night as a referendum on both the Jets and Patriots season is ridiculous.  One need not look farther that the 2007 season to see that.  The 07' Giants allowed 30+ points 4 times and lost by 20+ twice; yet they still managed to beat undefeated New England in the Super Bowl.

The Jets are not the 2007 Giants; they are very different teams in terms of style.  But the Jets are certainly still an elite team.  It is true that they are 1-3 against teams with a winning record.  But in 2 of those games (Baltimore and Green Bay), the Jets were in the game the entire way.  This is the only game in which the Jets have been dominated all season, and I don't expect it to happen again.  Last night's game may not have been an aberration in-so-far that the Patriots are better than the Jets; but they are not 42 points better.  The next 4 games will tell how good the Jets really are.

The Jets still play both Chicago and Pittsburgh on the road.  If they lose both of those games, I will agree with the media and say they are not a legitimate championship contender.  However, if the Jets close out the season 4-0, can anyone really say that they are not?  Pittsburgh is certainly an elite team and the Bears are looking better and better every week.  I think that playoff seeding will play the most important role in how far the Jets can go.

If the Jets have to go into New England again in the post-season, I don't think they can win.  However, just because New England is sitting at 10-2 today doesn't guarantee that they will finish 14-2.  Whats more is that if the Pats somehow--although this scenario is unlikely--slip up against Miami or Buffalo, the Jets will control their own destiny in the division again.  The Jets are more than capable of beating New England in the swirling winds of the meadowlands; week 2 told us that.  It is also possible that the Jets will not have to play New England again at all.  Who is to say that Baltimore won't be the 6 seed and upset New England in the second round?  That is a very possible scenario and, just to remind everyone, the Ravens made New England look more like school girls than an NFL power in last year's playoff meeting.

The Jets bandwagon definitely lost some of its passengers last night; not without merit either.  However, this team has 2 more tough contests in which they can prove their ability.  People scoff at their win in Cleveland as "escaping from a bad team" yet Cleveland pounded the Pats and Saints in the two weeks prior.  The NFL is a fickle and unpredictable game, no one will praise a 45-3 win if the Pats slip up against the Dolphins or Bils.  No one will call the Jets illegitimate if they beat the Bears and Steelers on the road.  In fact, this game may end up being one of the most important games they play all year.

The Jets have talked the talk--much to my delight--and walked the walk all year; until last night.  It is more than possible a beating at the hands of their rivals will get them more focused.  Some of the Jets larger issues had been covered up till last night (inability to get to the quarterback), those issues are much more obvious and easier to address today.  No one wants to listen about what they did wrong while their 9-2, after a 45-3 loss players better be listening...Of course if the Jets lay an egg at home against Miami this week I'll eat my hat and call them dead.  The Jets aren't the first team to be humbled after about of overconfidence.

"Plax only thinks we're gonna score 17 points??"  I'm sure Giants fans remember that quite well.  For anyone who doesn't, thats Tom Brady before playing the Giants in the 07' Super Bowl; we all know how that turned out.  If anyone had been told going into that post-season the Giants were going to run the table, they would have laughed.  But sure enough they did and the unbeatable Pats folded.  I think the Jets will bounce back from this loss.

In a league of parody, a team doesn't get to 9-2 without being elite.  If the Jets had lost 24-21 in a close game would anyone be calling them frauds today?  The Jets had a ton of problems last night--most of them self-inflicted--aside from getting run over by Tom Brady.  Steve Weatherford punted the ball 13 yards down 10-0, Rex Ryan made an awful challenge call and an even worse decision decided to kick a 53 yard field goal with the much-maligned Nick Folk.  Braylon Edwards ended two first half drives with dropped passes.  Eric Smith comitted an assinine pass interference on a ball that Rob Gronkowski had absolutely no chance to catch.  All of this happened in the first half and resulted with the Jets going into the locker room trailing 24-3.  Putting your second-year quarterback in that kind of hole, on the road, in Foxboro, is a recipe for a blowout.  If you take out the Jets miscues, this is probably a much closer game.

Anyway enough ranting...here are my predictions for the way the playoffs will shape up:

AFC
1. New England (13-3)
2. Pittsburgh (12-4)
3. Indiannapolis (10-6)
4. Kansas City (10-6)
5. Baltimore (12-4)
6. New York (12-4)

NFC
1. Atlanta (13-3)
2. New York (11-5)
3. Green Bay (11-5)
4. St. Louis (9-7)
5. New Orleans (12-4)
6. Philadelphia (11-5)

MVP: Tom Brady
Offensive Player of the Year: Arian Foster
Defensive Player of the Year: Clay Matthews
Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick
 

50 Thoughts and Predictions about the NBA in 2010-11…Pat Forde style

After a week of basketball I decided to write my thoughts and predictions on what will happen in the NBA this year.  I wrote this post similar to the way Pat Forde writes his 40 thoughts column for ESPN.

Teams That Look Different From

1.         Miami are going to be really good this year…2.  Celtics game aside, the Heat have looked dominant in their 2 other games and the Celtics are probably one of the two toughest matchups for the Heat in the NBA (the other being the Lakers).

3.      The Nets are going to win more than 12 games this year…4.  Lopez, Favors, and Harris have all looked pretty good so far…5.  Troy Murphy comes back this weekend setting up the Nets to have one of the better front courts in the NBA

6.  Oklahoma City might become one of the best teams in the NBA for the next decade…7. OKC might be a top 3 team in the NBA this year…8.  Youngest starting lineup that are only going to get better (how scary is it that Kevin Durant just turned 22??!!!!!)

9.  Fact: Phoenix came up 2 wins short of a finals appearance last year. ..10. Fact: Phoenix will not make the playoffs this year…11.  Forcing an undersized Hedo Turkgolu to play the 4 makes an already small front court smaller (they may give up more points in the paint than any team in the NBA this year)…12. Prediction: Steve Nash will want out well before the deadline and Phoenix is lottery bound.

13.  Ray Felton has looked really good for the Knicks so far, he’s gelling perfectly into the Dantoni offense…14.  Stoudemire may not be that much better than David Lee, but the Knicks are playing with a lot more intensity than they ever have in the Dantoni era…15.  The better Wilson Chandler looks, the closer the Knicks are to landing Melo…16. Crazy Prediction that would be really cool: Knicks get Melo from the Nuggets and trade all of their draft picks for the next 3 years to get Nash ( Can’t you just picture Nash and Amare reuniting under Dantoni with Melo on the wing), that team would be scary good.

New and Potential New Looks for Players

17.  Lebron’s recent Nike ad was so good that it took my hate for Lebron from a 10 to a 9.5...18. Watching Lebron play now is so different from the last 7 years of his career, he always used to just look like he loved the game.  Now he looks like basketball is strictly business to him.

19.  Other than the inevitable Melo trade, I think the next most likely superstar to get traded is Chris Paul…20.  The odds of Paul getting moved aren’t very good, but can’t you just picture New Orleans—headed for another dud season—at the deadline realizing that this team just isn’t good enough and won’t be for at least 3 or 4 more years…21.  If New  Orleans realizes this, I think the Magic seem like the most plausible contender for him to be moved too (unless of course the Knicks fail to get Melo and New Orleans agrees to take Chandler, Gallo, Curry)….22.  If the Magic get Paul, they are probably as good as either Miami or Boston.

23.  John Wall is going to be a star in this league (although he won’t be able to stop Blake Griffin from winning the Rookie of the Year award)…24.  Wall’s clear ability necessitates the trade of Gilbert Arenas (at some point)…25.  If the Wiz decide to move Arenas I wonder who would be interested…26. He would be the ideal fit for a team like Portland…27.  Unfortunately, Portland has only just gotten over the “Jail-blazers” era and bringing in a gun toting point guard who poses “guns up” pre-game for photos, might not be too endearing for Blazers fans…28. Other possible destinations I could see: New York, San Antonio, maybe Denver??

Bold (At times insane) Eastern Conference Predictions:

29.  The Eastern Conference Playoff order will go like this: 1. Miami  2. Orlando  3. Chicago  4. Boston  5. Atlanta  6. New York  7. Charlotte  8. New Jersey

30.  Miami, Orlando, and Boston all sweep their first round series…31.  The Knicks upset Chicago…32.  Boston shocks Miami in 6 games (Rondo might average a triple double a game with the Miami PGs guarding him)…33.  Orlando sweeps New York…34.  Boston beats Orlando in 7

Bold (Not nearly as crazy) Western Conference Predictions

35.  The Western Conference Playoff order will go like this: 1. Oklahoma City  2.LA Lakers  3. Dallas  4. Portland  5. Utah  6. San Antonio (limping into the playoffs) 7. Denver  8. Golden State (just edging out the Clippers)…36.  OKC cruise…37. All three other Series go 6 games with LA, San Antonio, and Portland winning…38. OKC beat Portland in 6…39. LA sweep San Antonio…40. LA beat OKC in 7.

NBA Finals

41. Boston beat LA in 7 games…42. Rajon Rondo is series MVP…43. Kobe begins the Favre-esque retirement rumor stage of his career…44. Ray Allen retires.

Awards

45.  MVP goes to Kevin Durant with a higher percentage of votes than Republicans will win seats in the midterm elections.

46.  Defensive Player of the year goes to Lebron James (he has to win some award)

47.  Rookie of the Year goes to Blake Griffin (John Wall will get votes because of the hype but has no chance to win…Griffin already looks like a seasoned vet)

48.  Eastern Conference All Star Starters: Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Dwayne Wade, Rajon Rondo, Carmelo Anthony (that’s as bold a prediction as you are going to get but I just don’t see Denver holding onto him more than 2 months.)

49.  Western Conference All Star Starters: Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki

50.  This is going to be a wild year.  Since my Nets probably won’t be great again I’ve come up with a short list of 4 teams I would like to see do well: the Knicks, Celtics, Thunder, and anyone who are playing the Heat.