So the NBA season is over and that means its time for a playoff preview!!! Get excited. This year might have been the most enjoyable NBA regular season that I can ever remember. Heading into the Playoffs, I feel the same way about the NBA that just about everyone felt about the Masters around 4:30pm yesterday: That the title is completely up in the air. For the first time that I can remember, there are about 7 different teams that have a legitimate shot to win the championship. So lets take a look at all 16 playoff teams and why they will or will not win the title.
Indiana Pacers
Why they will be Champions: The Pacers have a solid young core in Darren Collison, Danny Granger, Tyler Hansbrough, and Roy Hibbert…Trying to think of something else…still trying…nope that’s about it.
Why they won’t be Champions: Lets not forget they are still the Indiana Pacers. The only reason the Pacer’s are even in the playoffs is because they play in the disgustingly top-heavy eastern conference. Beating out the Charlotte Bobcats for the last spot in the East is not particularly impressive. While they have talent, the Bulls best 3 players are all better than the Pacer’s best (Granger). Combine the Bull’s stifling D with the Pacer’s tendency to go on long offensive lapses and you have a very one-sided series. The Pacer’s are going to have to shoot well to even win a game and I don’t see the rotting corpse of Mike Dunleavy hitting many jumpers with Luol Deng in his face.
Bold Prediction: Pacer’s get swept in the opening round.
Memphis Grizzlies
Why they will be Champions: They play Championship caliber defense, can bang inside, and have an above average backcourt. You could make an argument that no team has done a bigger 180 from last year than the Grizz. They can legitimately slug it out with any team in the NBA inside, and play better perimeter defense than almost any team in the NBA. Tony Allen has transformed his game, Mike Conley has become an above average PG, and there is just an intensity that Memphis play with that no one foresaw when they were predicted to finish toward the bottom of the NBA pre-season.
Why they won’t be: Rudy Gay. Even though OJ Mayo has played extremely well in Gay’s absence, an offensive player of Gay’s caliber is irreplaceable in the playoffs. They are also destined to play the Spurs—who have the best home record in the NBA—on the road in the first round. Tyreke Evans, Steph Curry, Ricky Rubio, Ty Lawson, Brandon Jennings, and Jrue Holiday: All players the Grizz passed on for Hasheem Thabeet. While they got Battier back, they could use another guard right now, especially heading into a faceoff with the Spurs. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Grizz force 6 or even 7 games against the Spurs, but ultimately I think the absence of Gay and not having home-court will be to much to overcome.
Bold Prediction: Memphis take the Spurs to 7 games.
Philadelphia 76ers
Why They will be Champions: The Doug Collins factor. As Bill Simmons points out here http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/110408&sportCat=nba …Doug Collins is a great motivator for one year. Aside from Collins, this 76er team has some talent: Andre Iguodala is one of the most consistently underrated players in the NBA, Elton Brand has breathed life back into his career, and Jrue Holiday is only 21. They have great chemistry and might be one of the biggest surprises of the season. If Iguodala and Holiday get hot, the 76ers could make some real noise.
Why they won’t be: Unfortunately the Collins factor can go only so far. At some point you need talent and depth and the 76ers don’t have enough of either. I could see them playing either the Heat or Celtics tough, but this team isn’t ready to win a series yet.
Bold Prediction: Philly takes Miami to 6 games.
New Orleans Hornets
Why they will be Champions: Chris Paul, Chris Paul, defense, and did I mention Chris Paul? Any time a team has one of the best point guards in the NBA they have a chance. While the injury to David West is crippling for New Orleans, they are still a good team who play tough D and have one of the best field generals in the game.
Why they won’t be: A matchup with the Lakers in the first round. LA is just too big and too talented up and down their roster for New Orleans to upset. Talent wise these two teams aren’t even close; combine that with the fact that they will have to play 2-4 games in the Staples Center and the outlook is pretty bleak. One caveat, should LA slip up against San Antonio or Sacramento before the season ends, Dallas will likely get the 2 seed. In a matchup with Dallas New Orleans has a real shot to win a series. However, I can’t see New Orleans going on the road 2 series—not too mention to win the title they would need to go on the road in 4 series—in a row and continue to win.
Bold Prediction: Hornets get swept by the Lakers.
New York Knicks
Why they will be Champions: In a word, talent. The Knicks have 2 of the best players in the NBA in Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire; that is a huge advantage in any series. In any series—excluding the Heat—the Knicks star-power should be as good-or-better than their opponents. In addition, the Knicks also have a solid supporting cast in Chauncey Billups, Landry Fields, Rony Turiaf, and Sheldon Willimas. Every day the new-look Knicks are getting better at playing with one another. They currently have a ton of momentum on their side, winning their last 7 games. Bottom line, even though they are a 6 seed, the Knicks are going to be a tough out for anyone.
Why they won’t be: Defense. Their issues with team chemistry are gradually being solved, but their issues on defense have remained the same. Last Sunday they made the Pacers look like the 2007 Phoenix Suns and barely escaped with a 1 point win. To be honest, I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see the Knicks shock the world and beat the Celtics; especially if the Celtics can’t get their offense together. But eventually the lack of defense will inevitably catch up with them. While the Knicks have 2 legitimate superstars, the rest of their team lacks the kind of depth and defensive play normally associated with Champions. This is a team that is primed to be a contender for the next 5 years, but until they get a younger PG, a better bench, and learn to play defense, the second-round will be their ceiling.
Bold Prediction: The Knicks will take the Celtics to at least 6—if not 7—games and will win a game in Boston.
Portland Trailblazers
Why they will be Champions: I think Portland might be the most under-appreciated team in the NBA this year. The Blazer roster is absolutely stacked with talent: Camby, Aldridge, and Wallace up front, Batum, Matthews, Miller, and Roy in the backcourt. This is one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the NBA. They are big enough and long enough to bang with the Lakers, while also being good enough in the backcourt to run with the Thunder. They give matchup problems to whomever they play and will be a tough out for any team.
Why they won’t be: They will likely have to go the road for three straight series just to get through the Western Conference. That is a tough task for any team, especially a team whose best player has no knees on his best day. If the Blazers could perfect time travel a la James Cameron in “Terminator” and transport Brandon Roy from 2 years ago to this team, they might be my pick to be champions. Unfortunately there is no such thing as time travel and Brandon Roy will probably never be the same player again. I think the Blazers could surprise a lot of people and win a series—regardless of their opponent—or 2, but eventually all of those road games will wear them out. The Blazers are a team to watch-out for next year, but for now the NBA title is still a Pipe-dream.
Bold Prediction: The Blazers will beat the Mavs in 6 games.
Atlanta Hawks
Why they will be Champions: ….thinking….Is “they have the highest-paid player from the summer of 2010 Free Agent class” a good enough positive spin for why the Atlanta Hawks will be champions? If not than I have nothing.
Why they won’t be: They are built for mediocrity, Joe Johnson is overrated, Marvin Williams is a bust, Jeff Teague doesn’t have as bright a future as they thought, Josh Smith is already packing his suitcases in anticipation of being traded this summer. Combine all of that with the fact that they are facing the team that absolutely lambasted them in the playoffs last year and you have the recipe for disaster.
Bold Prediction: Will be swept yet again by the Magic.
Denver Nuggets
Why they will be Champions: They are by far the deepest team in the NBA. Literally every one of Denver’s first 10 players could start on 80% of the teams in the NBA. Not only that, since the Melo trade trade Denver has been by far the best team in the NBA. Don’t believe me? Well the stats don’t lie: Since trading Carmelo Anthony Denver went 19-7, not only that but their scoring margin was +10ppg. To give you an idea of how good that is, the last team to average a scoring margin of +10ppg was the 2008 Celtics, and they won the title. Denver can do it all, play In transition, play tough D, rebound, and shoot.
Why they won’t be: The team that gave Denver the most trouble all year, the Thunder, is who they are playing in the first round. OKC’s size on the perimeter gives Denver a lot of matchup problems. In addition Denver is going to have play pretty much every series on the road.
Bold Prediction: You are going to have to wait for part 2 for this prediction ;).
